ulalaunch
The forecast from the Space Force's Space Launch Delta 45 weather squadron and Launch Weather Officer Brian Belson for Monday evening's launch of Atlas V indicates a 75 percent chance of acceptable conditions. The Cumulus Cloud Rule, Anvil Cloud Rules, and Surface Electric Fields Rule are the main concerns.
"After fair weather this weekend, a weak boundary is expected to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity to central Florida on Monday. The window could see coastal shower activity from onshore flow and afternoon/early evening thunderstorm activity, primarily inland and over west Florida, from interactions with the sea breeze," the weather team says.
"Thunderstorm development may also occur over the gulf stream. Although the steering flow appears likely to keep most thunderstorm activity away from the Cape, anvil clouds could be an issue."
The launch time forecast for 7 p.m. EDT (2300 UTC) includes scattered low- and high-level clouds, a chance of isolated showers, good visibility, easterly winds 14 to 20 knots and a temperature near 73 degrees F.
If the launch moves to the backup opportunity on Tuesday for some reason, there is a 90 percent chance of meeting the weather rules.
"For the backup day, high pressure with drier air is expected to return to the Space Coast, reducing the risk of a constraint violation. Although there remains a very small risk for thunderstorm activity over the western half of the state, flight-through cumulus clouds from onshore-moving showers are the primary concern for Tuesday's window," the weather team says.